Good day from the Wizard,
Rather than going over statistics, I felt a general overview of the holiday would be the Wizard’s approach.
The statistics are very important especially when it comes to the 5 W’s. The who, what, why, when, and where are extremely important. For that, I recommend you read all SAF’s reports if you are a member. If not a member I suggest you join.
Another Valentine’s Day is under our belt. For the most part, it looks like it was a very good holiday for most sectors of the industry. The weather in most areas across the country was warmer than normal for February, which made it much easier for getting products to market as well as for the consumer to go out and get flowers or have them delivered. Tuesday is one of the better days of the week for Valentine’s Day, and this year it lived up to its expectations.
Consumers were much more interested in roses and fillers and less in arrangements and mixed flowers, placing more demand on roses and less on miscellaneous flowers. Rose demand is stronger on Valentine’s than on any other day of the year by a factor that is larger than anyone can imagine. Small retailers can sell more Red Roses in one day than for several months. This year Red Roses were demanded in a greater percentage than in previous years placing more stress on the market with a heavy concentration on fewer items.
Predicting history is always easier after the fact.
Quality Logistic Issues that could be problematic for the Future
Valentine’s 2023 experienced a very smooth logistic holiday.
What has been reported was a very disappointing holiday for some airlines. The airlines expected to move more flowers. One reason for this is that approximately 300 ocean containers were shipped for the holiday. The other reason it was “murder” for the airlines was with the flatter production peak the usual volumes did not leave the regular expected days. Also, rates were not as strong as expected. Too much capacity was the result. With low rates and low volume, profitability became challenging. Some flights had trouble breaking even. Some freight providers are considering downsizing aircraft for the future. A 767 handles less cargo but can be more profitable than a 747 that does not have a full load.
Another major issue for the airlines is the exchange rate of the Colombian Peso. With a very strong dollar, there is not enough export for the planes to have a decent southbound payload. Also, some large Mass Market producers had to fly aircraft to other cities than Miami because of late production needed to hit the market.
Some people say who cares about the airlines. The airlines could change their strategy for Mother’s Day and decide not to lease as many extra aircraft and position fewer planes in flower-producing areas. They could also raise rates to compensate for disappointing results from Valentines.
Other future issues to be concerned about.
Blind shoots could result in a comeback crop that is not adequate for Mother’s Day causing shortages of high-demand rose varieties. Also, some farms may have production gaps this spring resulting in shortages. Right now it is too early to call.
Worker shortages existed in Colombia during the peak demand. Jobs in other sectors that pay more are easier to find. The Venezuelan migrants have filled many of these shortages. The Floral industry is a labor-intensive industry.Issues in Ecuador from last June’s strike have still not been resolved. According to Reuters on Feb 24 reported “A major Ecuadorian Indigenous organization said on Friday it will not continue talks with the government of President Guillermo Lasso, saying the government has not complied with accords and called for Lasso’s resignation over alleged corruption.”
Another strike in Ecuador will create major problems in the market.
Significant amounts of roses are being grown for the preserved rose market worldwide. Many florists are discovering the high quality and realizing these can be shipped by ground transport weeks before holidays and events and that you can get all the red you want for Valentine’s.
Conclusion:
The strong demand and tight market for Valentine’s were extremely encouraging especially after a lackluster fourth quarter of 2022 and a slow January. It was great to see Valentine’s sales come back with a vengeance!
Understanding the past can only help future planning. Optimism is the keyword.
As always thanks for reading my rants… Thank you for being part of a great Valentine’s 2023!
The Wizard and the Above All Flowers and New Bloom Solution’s Great Team
