The Wizard’s Wand News – December 2024
The Floral Insight Newsletter—December 27, 2024
Hi, this is Sahid Nahim again with New Bloom Solutions! As we wrap up the year, we’re thrilled to announce the launch of the Floral Events Calendar—our gift to you! Download it here. This calendar is a fantastic tool to help you plan your year, discover which conventions or floral events to attend, and even add events directly to your personal calendar—an awesome feature we’re excited to offer.
This project was made possible by the generous support of our sponsors:
CalFlowers, SAF, Denver Wholesale Florists (DWF), US Greens, BallSB, JetFresh, Pollen Talent, Deliflor, Royal Van Zanten, Airglades, United Selections, Thursd., and The Produce News.
Please take a moment to check them out and support those who make resources like this available.
The Bloom Show
Looking ahead, we’re already preparing for an incredible year on The Bloom Show in 2025! With exciting guests and innovative twists planned, it’s shaping up to be our most dynamic year yet. We’re making some format changes to keep things fresh—expect fun additions like book reviews and more surprises along the way.
We’re proud to share that The Bloom Show has surpassed 3,000 subscribers this year—a growth of over 50%! In 2024, we traveled to Ecuador, Colombia, India, and beyond, attended major floral conventions, and interviewed some of the most influential leaders in the industry.
We’re also excited to announce that The Bloom Show will host its 5th Annual Women’s Day Roundtable in 2025, featuring a unique wine-tasting twist to celebrate this special event!
On another note this month, I had the honor of being invited by Willie Armellini to a special year-end recap show alongside two incredible industry peers. We shared insights and reflections on the floral industry in 2025. If you missed it, you can watch the episode here.
The Bloom Together Event
We’re also celebrating a major milestone—the 5th Anniversary of The Bloom Together Event! This free networking event is the largest of its kind in the floral industry and will take place on March 3rd at 1 PM. Register here to join us and be part of this remarkable celebration, open to everyone in the floral community.
Our Vision for 2025
To continue living up to our slogan: Innovate, Connect, and Bloom, you can look forward to our continued support of the floral industry in connecting with floral innovations, each other, and growth opportunities.
A Special Thank You
As we close out 2025, I want to take a moment to thank everyone who supported all of our initiatives throughout the year. Your encouragement, partnership, and belief in my mission and vision truly mean the world to me. I’m wishing each and every one of you a fantastic New Year filled with growth, happiness, and success.
Thank you again for being part of this journey. Here’s to an amazing 2025!
Thoughts from the Wizard
Happy New Year
And now for some thoughts from the Wizard on some of the current economic, logistic problems, political, global, and labor issues that may impact you and your floral business.
Mergers and Acquisitions.
As predicted, mergers and acquisitions continue to increase in the flower business especially on the growing side with Colombians and Ecuadorians as large growers in Ecuador recently have acquired high quality rose farms.
Congratulations to Elite on its acquisition of The USA Bouquet Company from Dutch Flower Group. Please see link to article in Floral Daily: https://www.floraldaily.com/article/9685588/usa-bouquet-company-departs-dutch-flower-group/
M&A I is just not happening in Latin America and the States. In Canada Sierra Flower Trading joined forces with Club Floral earlier this year.
Here is an article about a large American investment company (TPG) on the verge of taking a large stake in a growing operation in Asia:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tpg-verge-buying-controlling-stake-091209351.html
On a larger front, judges in Oregon and Washington have blocked the proposed $24.6 billion merger between Kroger and Albertsons. As we know, this is something that has been in the news for a while. The judges have been saying that this merger would reduce competition and result in higher prices. The Trump administration may look at this differently and possibly allow it to happen. If it does, they could become one of the largest flower buyers in the country, if not the largest. That could be a great prize if it happens and decides to have one major supplier.
Labor and Strikes
The US job market is currently stagnant with low hiring and low layoffs. This environment presents challenges for job seekers as businesses are holding onto their existing workforce making it difficult to find new opportunities. Despite the unemployment rate being near historical lows, the hiring rate has dropped to its lowest since 2013, contributing to a “lack of churn” in the labor market, Bank of America economists said.
The economy added 227,000 jobs to non-farm payrolls last month as the impact of storms and other disruptions receded, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged upward to 4.2%
Initial jobless claims climbed in early December and applications were at a two-month high.
Amazon has experienced strikes at some of its largest fulfillment centers during the peak Christmas shipping period (Dec. 19th). Amazon has dealt with it well and the amount of union members (Teamsters) at Amazon is quite small.
Another big pending labor issue is the pending East Coast and Gulf port strike. The date of expiration of the current extension is January 15th. This could influence farms by not willing to risk shipping by ocean container as well as availability of vessels that may have been repositioned.
Trump is definitely supporting the dock workers and opposes more automation as the possibility of a strike gets closer and he wants the Panama Canal back.
Consumers and Growth
Mastercard estimates for Black Friday that there was a 0.7% in-store sales growth and a huge 14.6% growth online. When you factor in inflation, store sales may even be down.
There have been lots of price cuts this year on some categories of goods (even automobiles)
The shorter holiday season has been a major factor for retailers. Less time between Thanksgiving and Christmas has been a big issue for retail and online sales.
Here is a report from Reuters on Nov 30 – “Black Friday spending in U.S. retail stores was muted this year in contrast to a more robust rise online, as bargain-hungry Americans skipped stores in favor of their phones and laptops, according to data from Mastercard and other data providers.
Retailers are noticing consumers focusing on promotions this holiday shopping period, with Best Buy reporting that shoppers are “deal-focused” and Target noting a sales dip outside of sales events.
US consumer confidence rose more than anticipated in November, reaching 111.7, amid increased optimism about job availability and the current labor market, per the Conference Board. A stock market rally and a stronger economic outlook also influenced the improvement. “November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.”
Inflation and The Fed
Inflation is still over the Fed’s target of 2%. The most recent Consumer Price Index was 2.6% while the most recent Personal Consumption Expenditure was at 2.8%. These are both higher than the previous month. This is part of the reasoning for possibly only two Fed rate cuts for 2025. Prices at the consumer level rose 2.7% from a year earlier in November, while consumer prices increased by 0.3% from the previous month.
Inflation remains persistent coupled with possible tariffs. Given this and a strong labor market, there is not a strong urgency to lower interest rates.
As we know the Fed’s rate cut last week was complicated as it turned out to more on the hawkish side as they were somewhat split on the decision. Future rate cuts may be few and far between depending on inflation data.
We had three rate cuts this year and last week the Fed signaled that reducing rates next year could be done more slowly estimating only two cuts. Consumers will be faced with higher-than-expected rates and not enjoy much lower rates next year for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and other forms of borrowing.
This expectation of only two rate cuts in 2025 caused one of the worst days in many months on what had been a very bullish Wall Street. The Dow closed down more than 1,100 points, roughly 2.5%. The Nasdaq was hit worse; It sank about 3.5% Wednesday(Dec. 18th). Higher interest rates can slow business expansion for some sectors.
Logistics
Political and labor tensions kept late November ocean container rates to the U.S. strong in what is usually a slow period following the peak holiday shipping season.
Average Asia-U.S. rates remained level and elevated at more than $5,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit since October, analyst Freightos said in its update for the week ending Nov. 22 with daily rates to the U.S. East Coast climbing past $6,000 since then.
“This rate strength probably reflects some front loading ahead of both a possible renewed ILA (International Longshoremen’s Association) strike at East Coast and Gulf ports after Jan. 15 and anticipation of Trump administration tariff increases next year,” wrote Judah Levine, head of research for Freightos.
Air cargo demand has remained strong post-pandemic, with freight shipped by dedicated cargo operators up 2% and passenger airlines picking up substantial freight business. Airlines with cargo subsidiaries saw the most growth and freight-only aircraft operated by airlines like Air Canada carried 25% more cargo than before the pandemic. Orders for freighter aircraft remains high despite a potential drop in freight demand for 2025.
The air cargo bull market is expected to cool 50% in 2025. Proposed rules targeting Chinese e-commerce imports and the shortage of dedicated aircraft could dampen demand. Industry stakeholders are cautioning that the 2025 growth rate in air cargo volumes could be cut by half, or more from this year’s elevated levels. Nonetheless, November 2024 remained a busy air freight month.
UPS and FedEx have done a good job this holiday season and we have not seen the usual horror shows that have happened in past years. There also seems to be more deliveries coming via USPS and even Amazon is using them quite a bit.
Express shipments will account for a quarter of all air cargo business by 2043 as e-commerce sales growth outpaces general cargo by a wide margin, contributing to a two-thirds increase in the global freighter fleet to meet shipping demand, according to Boeing’s latest outlook.
FedEx’s decision to spin off its LTL division and reinforce Boeing’s latest outlook; returning their core business is a good decision for FedEx.
Tariffs
Trump’s plan to increase or place tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico could impact companies across North America and trigger negative consequences and disruptions for the global supply chain, according to experts.
Logistics companies are preparing for potential disruptions if Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China, which he has said he plans to do. The tariffs could lead to a surge in imports before the inauguration, followed by a sharp decline, and could trigger a trade war with retaliatory tariffs against US exports
US manufacturers are increasing their inventory of overseas-supplied components and raw materials to lessen the impact of any tariff hikes under Trump. The development risks straining supply chains as manufacturers rush to beat the tariffs and diversify their supply chains.
Americans are stockpiling goods and pulling forward major purchases in anticipation of potential tariffs from Trump. A University of Michigan survey has found that a record number of consumers believe now is a good time to buy big-ticket items. Economists warn that this behavior could drive up prices further.
Immigration
The US is already short of labor supply due in part to baby boomer retirements; the most recent unemployment rate of 4.1% is quite low relative to past rates. Certain industries, such as construction, leisure and hospitality, agriculture, meatpacking, and food processing employ a higher-than-average proportion of undocumented immigrants. If these industries find it necessary to raise wages to hire new workers and pass along those higher costs to consumers, this may increase inflation. Conversely, if those industries absorb higher wage costs, they will instead report lower profitability. Either result is probably not good for the economy.
Conclusion Looking forward to 2025
- Despite the current election, the Wizard is optimistic for the floral industry. We feel the economy will continue to remain strong. It will just be a strong economy with higher interest rates and maybe slightly higher inflation.
- Some good news from November was the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% on a monthly basis in November and 2.4% compared with a year earlier, below the Dow Jones estimate of 2.5%. Core PCE, which excludes the energy and food categories was up 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually, slightly lower than forecast in both cases. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
- More good news relates to the GDP. US GDP growth for Q3 has been revised to 3.1%, up from the initial estimate of 2.8%, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revision was driven by higher exports and consumer spending, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected the revision to come in at 2.9%
- The CEO of Royal Floral Holland reports about the European market continuing to be challenged. Please see the link to the article from Floral Daily about November cut flower product revenues being disappointing: https://www.floraldaily.com/article/9690196/nl-royal-floraholland-ceo-gives-december-update/?utm_medium=email
- The Fed is debating the neutral interest rate and potential policy changes under Trump which could impact inflation and the labor market
- As a result of the recent US elections, we expect a potential shift in several economic fundamentals, including tariffs, immigration, inflation, taxes, deficits, and interest rates. At the same time, the core forces driving the economy remain unchanged: corporate profitability, strong labor market, strong services sector, and high consumer demand on most items
- Inflation is still persistent. Inflation has been above 2% since February of 2021, peaking at 9.2% (CPI) in mid-2022 before declining to 2.6% today. However, recent readings have been steady in the 2.4%-2.6% range; the decline may have stalled. The largest contributors to the high CPI are shelter costs and auto insurance. Without a rate decline, it’s hard to see housing costs coming down. Auto insurance rates have been driven higher by medical costs, repair costs, and higher accident rates (as less people work at home and roads are more congested) – these could decline. Overall, with some of the political changes we expect the higher inflation to continue for a while complicating the path for Fed rate cuts.
We barely avoided a government shut down on the 20th of December. The good news is the new extension had certain amount allocated to American Farmers including specialty horticultural farmers. Please see following link:https://www.floraldaily.com/article/9689452/usda-launches-2-billion-in-aid-for-floriculture-growers/?utm_medium=email
- Overhead is high for many operations in the flower industry. It is extremely important to keep an eye on your costs and margins. Salaries have increased as well as many other things like insurance. In the 80’s and 90’s smaller banks merged and were acquired by larger banks and in the end, we have fewer local banks and larger national banks. This helped cut costs and increase efficiencies as bigger economies of scale developed. Be lean, mean, and efficient for 2025.
Until next time!!!!
Warm regards and thanks for reading my rants and tidbits that may or may not mean anything to you. Let the Wizard know if you have any comments!
The Flower Wizard- David Kaplan
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